The Shadow of ’05

AUBURN HILLS, Mich. – The 2005 NBA draft hangs heavy over the ’08 draft as the days tick off until Thursday’s grabfest. Milwaukee won the 2005 lottery and went with Andrew Bogut, the 7-footer from Australia by way of the University of Utah. Bogut’s been pretty good, too.

But pretty good doesn’t cut it when you have the No. 1 pick in a draft that produces two franchise point guards, Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Had Larry Harris taken either one, chances are he’d still be employed as Bucks general manager – and Joe Dumars wouldn’t have lost John Hammond, the Pistons’ vice president who succeeded Harris and is sitting with another lottery pick in this year’s draft after the Bucks crashed to 26-56 last season.

Atlanta had the No. 2 pick in that draft and went with Marvin Williams, who’d just completed a freshman season at national champion North Carolina in which he didn’t even start. Williams is coming into his own on a young Hawks team that finally cracked the playoff field and pushed eventual champion Boston to seven games in the first round, but Atlanta was still desperate enough for a point guard – even after using a lottery pick on Acie Law last year – that it was forced to send disappointing 2006 lottery pick Shelden Williams to Sacramento in February for Mike Bibby and his big contract.

Williams went third in ’05 to Utah, which in his time in Salt Lake City has gone from a lottery team to last year’s Western Conference finals and a second-round loss to the Lakers this spring. Paul, the 2005-06 Rookie of the Year, went fourth to New Orleans, which took defending champion San Antonio to seven games in this year’s second round.

So it’s no real surprise, then, that four of the first six picks in the 2008 draft figure to be point guards – at least if you consider O.J. Mayo a point guard, as he sees himself and as many NBA teams do as well.

Derrick Rose, who took Memphis to the NCAA title game as a freshman, is the favorite to go No. 1 overall to Chicago, which thought it was set for years at the position with Kirk Hinrich but likely won’t pass up the homegrown Rose. A superior athlete, many believe Rose combines the best traits of Paul and Williams – the speed and quickness of the former, the strength of the latter.

If Kansas State power forward Michael Beasley doesn’t go No. 1 overall to the Bulls, it’s highly likely he’ll go No. 2 – much like last year, when Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were the consensus 1-2 picks, it’s again considered a top two and everyone else. But Beasley might not wind up in Miami.

The Heat are believed interested in trading down a few spots – perhaps to Memphis at No. 5, which covets either Rose or Beasley – and still winding up with Mayo.

Seattle at No. 4 is rumored to be leaning toward Arizona freshman Jerryd Bayless, a terrific scorer who has drawn comparisons to another former Wildcat star, Gilbert Arenas.

Memphis is one of the few teams high in the lottery not keen on taking a point guard after drafting Mike Conley fourth a year ago and Kyle Lowry in the first round in 2006 and getting 2007 first-rounder Javarris Crittenton from the Lakers in the Pau Gasol trade.

But the Knicks at No. 6 need a point guard and could be left to choose from a pair of sophomores, UCLA’s Russell Westbrook and Texas’ D.J. Augustin. Whoever gets past the Knicks – assuming they don’t trade down in a deal that rids them of one of their many undesirable contracts – probably won’t last any longer than Indiana at No. 11.

Teams that might be looking to take a point guard in the first round:

Chicago – If new coach Vinny Del Negro brings Mike D’Antoni’s Phoenix-style offense with him, Rose would seem an ideal quarterback to push the ball and create shots early in possessions. And he’d make Hinrich and Ben Gordon, if he doesn’t get away as a restricted free agent, dangerous 3-point transition shooters.

Miami – With Jason Williams nearing the end and Dwyane Wade’s dislike for playing point guard well known, the Heat are in great need of a playmaking point. Assuming Rose is gone, Miami might go with Mayo over Beasley even if it can’t trade back.

Minnesota – Randy Foye is a combo guard who could play alongside the right point – and someone with Mayo’s size could give the Timberwolves the defensive flexibility to make that pairing work.

Seattle – The Sonics didn’t get enough out of the combo of Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson. If Bayless blossoms, he’d give them a third young star to pair with last year’s lottery rookies, Durant and Jeff Green.

New York – D’Antoni needs a quarterback to begin to implement elements of his Phoenix attack in New York. It might be a reach to take either Westbrook or Augustin at No. 6, though Westbrook – a phenomenal athlete – reportedly worked out very well for the Knicks.

Indiana – Jamaal Tinsley’s a pretty good player when he’s healthy and not distracted by off-court controversy. Those times, alas, are few and far between. At 11, they’ll probably happily take either Westbrook or Augustin.

Cleveland – The Cavs patched a hole with Delonte West, who’s best suited to coming off the bench, and have Daniel Gibson, too. But they could use a little more stability at the position, though it’s unlikely they’ll find what they want at 19.

Denver – Chucky Atkins and Anthony Carter shared the position last year. If the Nuggets don’t make a dramatic trade, they need a true pass-first creator, making Mario Chalmers a darkhorse possibility at 20.

Boston – The reigning champions got by all year with Rajon Rondo backed by shoot-first Eddie House and late-season signee Sam Cassell, who’s about at the end of the line. Last year’s second-rounder Gabe Pruitt, is in the wings, but another young option is possible – especially if Chalmers slips to 30.

I want indiana, denver, chicago and miami to come out again for the playoffs this coming NBA season. they should rebuild, specially the pacers and the bulls.

the nuggets needs a powehouse center play. and a terrific coach. mr george karl doesnt fit to the team's chemistry. they can't make it in the 2nd round.